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Futuring : the exploration of the future

Bethesda, Md. : World Future Society, 2004 copyright.
Descripción: xiv, 313 páginas

ISBN: 0930242610

Explorers of the Future: The Lessons of the Great Explorers. Inventing the Future. Gaining Power Over the Future. Productive Dreaming. Setting Out on Our Expedition

The Great Transformation: Our Experience of Change. Hyperchange. Exploring the Transformation. Three Technological Revolutions. The Cybernetic Revolution. Future Revolutions. But Where Are We Going?

Six Supertrends Shaping the Future: The Six Supertrends. Will the Supertrends Reverse?. The World in 2040: What It Might Be Like. Higher Living Standards. Work and Education. A More-Crowded World. A Devastated Environment. An Expanded Human Habitat. Shaping Our Future. Summary

Understanding Change: Watching Trends. Our Unknown World. Cycles: Trends That Reverse. Patterns of Change. Stages in Technology and Society. Change and Stability

Systems, Chance, and Chaos: The Importance of the Systems Approach. A World of Interacting Systems. The Enormous Potential of Chance Events. How Chance Influences Our Lives. The Influence of Chaos. The Implications of Chaos Research. The Infinitude of Our Possible Futures. Summary

Futuring Methods: Consulting Experts. Very Serious Games. Models and Simulations. Visioning. Easy Ways to Use the Methods. An Overview of Futuring Methods

Knowing the World Around Us: One Baby vs. 100 Million. Scanning the World Around Us. Classifying Trends. Trend Extrapolation. Causes and Impacts. How Might a Trend Affect Us?. A "Surprise-Free(3y (BFuture

Using Scenarios: The Development of the Scenario Method. Scenarios for Population and Economics. Making Choices and Forecasts. Scenarios to Forecast Future Events. Forecasting and "Backcasting(3y. (BOther Uses of Backcasting. Personal Backcasting. Scenarios for Careers

The Wild Cards in Our Future: Personal Experiences with Wild Cards. Future Wild Cards. Averting Catastrophes. The Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001. Could the Attacks Have Been Anticipated?. Future Catastrophes. Eight Future Benestrophes. A Century of Wild Cards?

Inventing the Future: The Secrets of Creative Geniuses. The Role of Chance in Creativity. The Science of Discovery. Basic Tools for Shaping the Future. Mapping Our Ideas. Planning a Pleasant Evening. Progress in Futuring

The Past as a Guide to the Future: The Madness of Crowds. Practical Lessons of Financial History. Using History in Decision Making. Creating a Better Future. The Recent Past as a Guide. The Value of the Long View

Predicting the Future: Follies of Forecasters. Miracles That Were Postponed. The Computer: A Stealth Technology. Todays World as Envisioned a Century Ago. Todays World as Envisioned a Generation Ago. Coming to Judgment. Progress in Forecasting

How the Future Became What It Used to Be: The Idea of Progress. Science and the Industrial Revolution. The Triumph of the Doctrine of Progress. Science Fiction and Utopias. The Collapse of Optimism. The Impact of World War I. The Death of Progress?

The Futurist Revolution: Can France Have a Future?. Planning Frances Future. De Jouvenels Influence. The Rise of American Futurism. The RAND Corporations Influence. The Space Age Begins Futurist Groups Form

Improving Our Futures: Challenging Fatalism. The Knowability of the Future. The Improvability of Our Future. The Urgency of the Future. Foresight: The Secret Ingredient of Success. Responsibility for the Future

Future Generations: Do We Have Duties to the Future?. A Piedge to Future Generations. Helping Young People. What We Can Do. Humanitys New Potential

Epilogue: A Fellowship of Explorers.



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