The main drivers of arabica coffee prices in Latin America

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This paper analyzes the determinants of arabica green coffee prices in Latin American countries using a time series analysis and panel data methods. For this purpose, we construct a panel of different coffee prices: Coffee Organization (ICO) composite prices for Brazilian Naturals, Colombian Milds, and Other Milds; prices paid by the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia (FNC) to coffee growers; and farm gate prices by country. The results show that the Brazilian Real to USD real exchange rate, inflation, and rain in January affect prices positively. In contrast, green coffee inventories, the oil price, and the Colombian Peso to USD real exchange rate negatively affect coffee prices.

Abstract

Introduction

1. Literature review

2. A simple pricing model for arabica coffee

3. Definition of variables and data sources

4. Methods and results. A. Model 1: ICO composite prices (monthly, Jan-1997 to Sep-2020). B. Model 2: colombian prices and production (monthly, Jan-1997 to Jun-2020). C. Model 3: panel data for farm gate prices (annual, panel data, 1979 to 2019)

5. Discussion and conclusions

Annex.


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