What is at stake during the upcoming South Korean presidential elections?

South Korea is holding presidential elections on Dec 19. The elections are being held in a country which has a decidedly presidential system and in which the candidates’ domestic economic platform will be relevant. Other big issues include North Korea and, consequently, ties with the US.

As a result of the primaries, the contest will be between the former Minister of Unification Cheng Dong-young of the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) and the businessman and former mayor of Seoul, Lee Myung-bak. Lee is the favorite, according to recent polls, and is running on the GNP ticket, which is the more conservative of the two.

In a country where democracy is still young, political forces tend to suffer from internal division and are influenced by personality. Thus, a positive image for the candidate Lee is important. His being a man of humble extraction and past successes at Hyundai are more relevant. In fact, Lee is perceived as a candidate who can employ this experience on behalf of the country and bring about more economic growth (4.5% in 2007), raising the per capita income by up to $ 3,000, through financing projects with an international fund, increased consumption and employment, as well as building confidence in the system as a whole.

Lee has a more Western vision on market economy revitalization. He backs tax incentives for businesses and bank acquisitions. At the domestic level, his policies are expected to result in greater economic recovery and a continuation of the process of strengthening South Korean ties to regions beyond Asia. This will require a strong domestic economy, as well as a policy of rapprochement and aid to North Korea, which is the axis on which South Korean domestic and foreign policy rotate.

The election also hinges on North Korea’s willingness to dismantle its nuclear weapons within a framework of anti-Americanism among the population, due to the presence of US troops in the DMZ as well as the presence of South Korean troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The withdrawal of Korean troops from Afghanistan and their replacement by civilian officials to assist in nation-rebuilding, as announced by President Roh before the elections in December, is still pending, as are ROK troops in Iraq. This is due to the strategic nature of US-South Korea ties, and President Roh not wanting to damage ties due to strategic reasons.

North Korea depends on the US, South Korea and China to sustain it financially. Hence, the agreements reached at the recent Six Party summit between the mediators of this issue have entered the political agenda during the elections, although the meeting between the presidents of North Korea and South has been viewed by some as mere election propaganda.

Lee has promised to improve relations with the US, in part due to the limited capacity of both parties to sign an FTA. He announced he will delay the transfer of all military forces in South Korea to Korean leadership until 2009. This is because he is aware that the US is vital to ROK security. The reunification aspirations of the two Koreas are long-term and, therefore, whoever wins at the polls in December (Lee is almost guaranteed a victory, barring any surprises) will exert crucial influence, alongside China, in the inevitable opening up of North Korea’s economy. The new president will also lead the process to improving ties with the US. The results of the elections in South Korea are also important for Chile and South America as a whole. A strong Korea, which has more economic growth, would mean greater opportunities for trade and business, whereas Chile has a successful FTA in place with this country.