China and Taiwan: Winds of change

While Beijing has been under heavy pressure in recent times due to the turmoil of the Tibetan issue and the devastating earthquake in Sichuan, it has also had reason to feel satisfied and celebrate.
  
Undoubtedly, the principal issue that has raised the Chinese leadership spirits is the recent progress of the Taiwan issue.
  
High level representatives from the China and Taiwan concluded an agreement this week on direct flights between the two nations. They also reached an accord on measures to facilitate tourism. These results may seem commonplace, but they are important precisely because they did not necessitate the discussion of sovereignty and political integration. After a nearly 10 year hiatus, these talks show a willingness to subordinate the more controversial issues in favour of making progress in those areas which unite the two Chinese nations.

It also begins to give substance to the April 12, 2008 meeting between President Hu and Vice President-elect of Taiwan, Vincent Siena. This meeting had high symbolic content as it was the first time since 1949 there was a meeting between the political heirs of Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek.
  
For these reasons, the press on both sides of the strait has been unusually positive and laudatory in its comments on the meeting. Phrases like "a new era", "the basic structure of relations will change from now on", “clearly the issue of sovereignty has been postponed in the search for common ground”, and “the only mishap would be faster progress and negotiations with broader aims” were phrases which dominated mainland and Taiwanese press.

What factors brought about this change? Change came about, in large part, because the current leader of Taiwan, President Ma, won elections in March this year with a platform that promoted a more cooperative and conciliatory tone with mainland China. In defeating President Chen, Ma’s platform also defeated a policy that actively promoted the political independence of Taiwan, which had been producing a growing confrontation with Beijing and was a major concern in Washington.

  
For its part, the Beijing leadership is satisfied for several reasons. This time it kept itself from carrying out any provocative actions for the benefit of the Taiwanese electorate; issues which in the past often served to reinforce the independence movement’s position. The caution paid off. Mainland official now have four years to carry out a large variety of maneuvers, which reaffirms and increases extant interdependence, and, especially, creates an atmosphere of increased confidence. That confidence will make the offer of "one country, two systems" that China has offered Taiwan feasible. Or at least help in finding another method in the Beijing’s age-old goal of making "one China" a reality.

Worldwide fears of a large-scale confrontation sparked by the Taiwan issue undoubtedly decreased vis-à-vis these events. Geopolitical tensions in Southeast Asia, much of Asia, and even globally, have in Taiwan a spark which could set off the powder keg. In fact in 2007, the United States, led a strong initiative alongside Australia, Japan and India, which, increased its military presence in the region under different auspices. Beijing saw these actions as being oriented the containment of China in general, and also in view of a confrontation on Taiwan.  

After above meetings were held, Beijing has reason to celebrate. Taiwan can breathe calmly for a while and the United States can reallocate their energies to more urgent geopolitical fronts.