China and India: Population issues

By David Azócar

These two giants account for almost 40% of the world’s population. China is in the lead with 1.33 billion. India is a close second at 1.14 billion. However, these rankings may be in for a change. According to the census bureau in India, in less than two decades India may overtake its Chinese neighbor.

India and China's population are exactly 154 times larger than Chile's. For example, Mumbai has nearly the same population our entire country. However, neither of the two has a high birth rate. India is 1.5% and China is 0.6%, according to estimates for 2008. Chile weighs in at 0.9% according to the INE.  China clearly has a very effective birth rate policy, its famous One-Child policy. India, on the other hand, does not.

China: Largest nation in the world

The most populated nation in the world is also the largest consumer of copper. It is also, not surprisingly, Chile’s principal trading partner. Despite its One-Child policy, however, it continues to face many issues related to its huge population. According to the CIA World Fact Book, as of July 2008, China has 1.33 billion inhabitants.

The Chinese decided to address this issue in 1979, implementing its One-Child policy. The Chinese Communist Party’s initiative was aimed at boosting economic development, optimizing resources and improving the welfare of the population. Thus began the "one couple, one child" campaign, during a time in which couples were having 2.75 children on average. By 2006, the figure had dropped significantly to 1.72.

According to the Chinese Ministry of the Interior, over 400 million births have been avoided though the program. However, questions have arisen regarding the general structure Chinese population. One unforeseen effect of One-Child has been that more males are born due to selective abortion of females.

One reason for terminating female pregnancies is a sense, in China’s rural areas, that male children will work on the land. Later, they will marry a wife, who will care for their husband’s aging parents. This type of thinking has resulted in regions like Lianyungang Province having 164 males for every 100 females in the population under four years of age.

Finally, the number of elderly Chinese is increasing. It is expected that China will soon begin to face a situation similar to Japan. As of 2007, 10% of the population was over 75. Given low birth rates and improved medical care, this figure can only climb in the near future.

India: The youngest nation in the world

According to Martin Perez Le-Fort, director of the Asia-Pacific Center (IEI, Universidad de Chile), "There is an obvious difference between India and China. China has a restrictive policy and India has no policy; even though its population has increased considerably in recent years.”

With an estimated 1.14 billion inhabitants (CIA World Fact Book), India is the second most populous nation on earth. It has one main difference with neighboring China, though. 31.5% of its total population, i.e. 361 million, is between 0 and 14 years of age. This demographic is close to the combined population total of the US and UK, and makes India proportionally the youngest country on the planet.

Sergio Carrasco is a graduate of India’s prestigious Nehru University (JNU) and a major contributor to this website. He is also Chile’s academic on Indian issues.

In Dr. Carrasco’s opinion, the main reason for the high proportion of young people in India can be found in India’s Muslim sector. India’s Muslim population does not believe in birth control. "In India, Muslims are what we refer to in Chile as the poorest sector of society. And they are very attached to their beliefs. One of their precepts is to give birth to all the children that ‘Allah wills them to have’.”

Dr. Carrasco points out that India is a democracy which does not seek to control the behavior of individuals. This is in stark contrast to the dictatorship in China. "India is a tolerant and multicultural country. Though they may wish to control the Muslim birth rate, they cannot. India has a Muslim majority which has representation in the parliament. These leaders will never allow a measure restricting birth to pass.

The Indian Census Bureau states that by year 2035, India will become the most populous nation on earth, reaching the incredible figure of 1.46 billion.

India had 1.03 billion inhabitants as of 2001 and is expected to exceed the population of China by 2035. Additionally, as in the case of China, many families prefer to have boys. Males can contribute more to the financial upkeep of the household. Women, however, have to pay dowries and thus constitute an economic burden to the family.

The 2001 Census showed a significant trend in the decrease in the percentage of females in the population.  Whereas there were 945 females per 1,000 men in 1991, there were 927 women per 1,000 men in 2007.

Dr. Carrasco feels that Indian population trends will generate a new global phenomenon within the next generation. "Whereas Muslims are experiencing high birth rates, in the coming years India will not only be the world's largest democracy. It will also be the largest democracy with a Muslim majority on the planet. That will be interesting," he concludes.