China’s candidate: Obama or McCain?

China’s relationship with the U.S. is key issue. In fact, it may be China’s greatest foreign policy challenge. The bilateral agenda is full of sensitive issues, especially economics. The revaluation of the Yuan, the trade deficit, protection of intellectual property and investment liberalization are among the most important concerns. Not to mention the political and strategic tensions that regularly visible disagreements, and there is talk of human rights or the lack of transparency in its military budget.

During his first years in office, President Hu Jintao has put some distance between himself and his predecessor. In recent speeches he has echoed his party’s heretofore internally-discussed desire to improve Chinese ties with other great powers. He has especially expressed support for regional order (India and Japan, where China recently replaced the U.S. as its largest export market) and adopting a less submissive tone than former President Jiang Zemin. This occurred largely because of China’s desire to gain favor with the White House in order to achieve entry into the WTO. At the 2006 summit held in Washington, Hu Jintao and Bush agreed to address the difficulties in order to improve bilateral strategic dialogue in key areas. And although differences of substance may not have disappeared altogether, this approach is working, which provides a horizon of stability essential to these relationships.

Will this affect the next US administration’s policy towards China? Does Beijing prefer one of the candidates more than the other? Regarding Sino-American relations, the first issue to consider is the positions of the two candidates are essentially alike. First, neither candidate is promoting any variation in the US’ One-China policy. This is to say, the US should maintain its quasi-diplomatic relations with Taipei. They both also agree that the US should focus on defense, while avoiding crossing the limits set by Beijing. Secondly, both candidates promise to be tougher and more demanding during trade disputes. This is done primarily for the benefit of US voters, but one can see whereas this stance might have ramifications on future trade talks and disputes.

China is fully aware of the sympathy that many Democrats have for Taiwan. Democrats’ commitment to Taiwan is often accompanied by more belligerent positions on human rights and Tibet. As such, those who characterized McCain’s position as being more “constructive” than Obama have been surprised by the Republican candidate’s audience with Dalai Lama this July. McCain described the Tibetan leader as being “a transcendent international role model and hero”, causing concern in Zhonnanghai. In recent articles, Obama and McCain are toning down the symbolism of such gestures, calling for an increased and more pragmatic cooperation with China on trade issues, climate change, non-proliferation and other matters, recognizing the existence of shared vital interests.
 

Neither candidate considers Beijing an enemy and both stances are consistent with the defense of an alliance between China and the United States which will permit both nations access to the international economy. Is this just a baseless illusion? China’s GDP is currently one-third that of the US, but in 2035 it may overtake the US in the production sector. By 2050, it may be double the US GDP. China’s power will eventually permeate the entire spectrum of international relations. This will force the US to acknowledge, despite an increase in technological and military competition, the inevitability of China’s increased influence and to establish secondary commitments which will reduce the US’ ability and room to maneuver unilaterally.