Fukuda Doctrine: The Pacific ocean as inner sea

Little attention has been paid in the media to Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda’s speech of May 22, 2008. The prime minister, who resigned yesterday, delivered a speech entitled “When the Pacific Ocean Becomes an Inland Sea: Five Pledges to a Future Asia that Acts Together” at the 14th International Conference on The Future of Asia. 

From the title of the conference, we can anticipate that the doctrine drawn out 30 years ago in 1977 by Japan, appropriately called the "Fukuda Doctrine", as it was developed by Mr. Fukuda’s father. It argues that the vastness of the Pacific Ocean has shrunk to the size of the Mediterranean Sea and will be made even smaller in 30 years, becoming an "inland sea". As he described the issue to the current Japanese Prime Minister, this will be an inland sea for Japan, the countries of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), China and India; continuing even to the Middle East.  Whereas Japan is such a close U.S. ally, the initiative, of course, could not exclude the U.S. He argues that given the current speed of ships, the Pacific Ocean is smaller than the Mediterranean was when it was the center of international trade relations. Furthermore, he views the division of the Pacific into eastern and western parts as a remnant of twentieth century thinking.

The development that Japan is seeking is directed towards Asia, “With a view towards a better future for Asia” and one in which the crucial links are Japan-China-South Korea-Russia. 

The question is why Japan has launched this initiative that seems to exclude South America, which is experiencing real growth of late, and even Oceania. As a member of APEC, Chile has consistently reiterated that the Pacific is what unites us and that we should work more closely together in the commercial and economic sectors. Chile’s vision is regional, yet clearly open. Not to mention we share 110 years of friendly diplomatic cooperation with Japan.

Fukuda gives us an answer in his speech: Japan will be face changes and problems and must play its role in the context of these changes. Among the issues are the following:   the aging of its population, a shift towards greater openness but preferably in Asia and developing this initiative, as mentioned, in order to contribute to stability and development. The Asia-Pacific area is a dynamic network in expansion, and the sea serves as a true intermediary. The Japanese need to forge links with people living in the region, said Fukuda.

Are we witnessing the end of the APEC doctrine of a broad Pacific that unites? Could it be that we have not put enough effort into getting closer to these countries in terms of cultural knowledge, learning their languages and cultures, and being more tolerant and persevering? All this has been said repeatedly.

From the perspective of power, we are at the dawn of a worldwide move from unipolarity to multipolarity. The emergence of China as a great power in the near future is, therefore, not the only change of late.  Japan and Russia are rightly concerned by this emergence and are trying to close ranks accordingly.  But they are also adopting initiatives at an international level that recall the times of naval power in Japan and the former Russian empire when it emerged as a power with strong influence in Central Asia.

The Pacific Ocean has several components: Asia, the Americas and Oceania. The central theme when raising the Inland Sea issue is who controls the access points. This is an immense power. These Pacific entry points are few: the Straits of Magellan, the Panama Canal, the Strait of Malacca, the Bering Strait and the Straits of Indonesia. Japan could monitor the Okocht (northern Japan) and Korea, the Sea of Japan. At present, the Pacific circulates the greatest exchange of goods and services around the world and is home to more than half the world’s population. The USA is the premier naval power, Russia second, Japan third –and, as always – a close ally of the USA. China still lacks in this area due to its efforts at developing its agricultural interior. There is also historical resentment within Japan, Korea and China that must be overcome to pragmatically bring the Fukuda doctrine to fruition. The dispute over the Dokdo Islands is not a minor one. The world will have to wait and see how the new Japanese prime minister defines the official stance, if the elections go forward now in September. There is speculation that Aso, Fukuda’s possible successor, would be more conservative on foreign policy and not offer provocative policies. In any event, Japan has always an "Asia for Asians" had in mind.

The conclusion is that our burgeoning side of the Pacific here in the Americas cannot remain mute as initiatives which divide the Pacific are put forth. Chile, with its steady official policy throughout the last decades, has an important role to play. Though limited in landmass, it is open to a world of possibilities.