Impressive defeat of ruling party in Japan

The defeat in the Upper House of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Sunday, July 29, is a milestone that will mark the history of modern Japanese politics.

The general rule is that democracies experience power shifts and the Japanese political system is no exception. However, the LDP has been the ruling party since 1955, with only a couple years' exception.

In Chile, this huge new story was reduced to a focus on the figure of Alberto Fujimori. The former Peruvian president only obtained 2,000 votes in his bid to become a Senator in Japan. Now he must face the Chilean Supreme Court, which may find in favor of his extradition to Peru for a trial involving his alleged human rights violations.

Fujimori actually had a chance to win. His party, the New Komeito, is part of the new coalition government that also has over 50 years leading the House. Many politicians were hit by the unexpectedly large loss in the election that shook the government.

Given the situation, many attempts to explain the defeat have been made. The LDP still controls the Lower House, which is the real source of power in Japan. This is because the Lower House is where most decisions are made, including the election of Prime Minister. The election results mean a shift in the behavior of the Japanese people, which has shown that its current trend is not necessarily towards change.

Chain reaction of scandals

When reviewing the causes of this political upheaval, one can find many. Some are rooted in the gap between the elitist LDP government and Japanese society, who is demanding more from its political class on an almost daily basis. There are even those who see in the previous government, the charismatic Junichiro Koizumi, a bar too high in terms of popularity and awareness of public opinion, as opposed to the classic conservative LDP politicians.

However, and despite the circumstances, no one disputes that the government of current Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has done much to contribute to the collapse of the LDP's popularity. It has experienced setback after setback.

Abe's arrival at the helm was quite successful. With nearly 70% approval ratings, he was chosen as the heir apparent by Koizumi himself. He was predicted to be the next star of Japanese politics.

But the new PM did not come from the LDP’s more progressive wing as did Koizumi. In contrast, Abe belongs to a very conservative tradition, growing up in the heart of the post-war political elite. His platform and ideals of government are far removed from the values promoted by his predecessor.

Abe began his term by placing a full agenda of policy objectives that perplexed the general public, which could see very clearly where their demands for reforms were headed.

Then, in early February, a chain of conflicts and scandals began within his cabinet, an almost unbelievable convergence of events. First, two of his most-trusted deputies were forced to resign; the Head of Tax Policy, on allegations of embezzlement of public funds and the Minister for Administrative Reform, stemming from charges of electoral fraud.

Then the Minister of Health was repudiated by the public for referring to women as "procreation machines". A few days later the Minister of Defense said some irreverent things about US foreign policy, producing a bit brief diplomatic impasse. He resigned a month later, after having made a statement about the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki which enraged people in Japan.

In May, the Minister for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries committed suicide after being linked to a bribery case. After only a month in office, his successor was indicted for embezzlement and unjustified expenses. A few days ago he, too, had to resign.

These scandals have filled the headlines of Japanese newspapers week after week for months on end. They have irreparably dented the image of the government and the coalition that supports it. They couldn’t compare with the scandal that was yet to come in the pension system.

Bureaucratic disaster

Two months before elections, the opposition party, or Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), lobbed a small bomb at the LDP. It reported the loss of 50 million pension account files. The confusion left the accounts nameless and future pensioners with no way to access their savings.

Although the "misstep" happened a decade ago, when the system was reformed, Abe was left to sort out the political consequences. Abe did nothing but promise to fix the disaster with a seemingly over-casual attitude.

The pension debacle is a direct attack on one of Japanese society’s most sensitive points. Since the population is aging by leaps and bounds, the number of retired Japanese is on the verge of overcoming the number of people in the work force.

Given this context, it was not difficult to predict a drastic decline in the LDP vote. But after 50 years of electoral hegemony in which there is no shortage of political scandals, a decline in the LDP’s fortunes was not a sure thing, either.

This election is certainly a precedent for the LDP, a warning that Japanese were running out of patience with it. Better performance is expected of someone who leads the government of Japan nowadays.