New Korean president’s foreign policy more pragmatic

As expected, the former Hyundai executive and Mayor of Seoul, Lee Myung-bak, was elected president of South Korea on December 19. He was elected on a platform which to restart the country's stalled economic growth, and to promote the opening of the economy and attract foreign investment. Above all else, he expressed a desire to improve Korean competitiveness and serve the middle class’ interests, which has been overwhelmed by taxes.

The domestic and foreign policy of Korea is inevitably determined by its desire for the unification of South and North Korea, which is governed by an introverted communist regime. The US, Japan, China and Russia are all involved in the negotiations to move Korea towards a peace process. Much has been said in the press about the recent agreements reached at the inter-Korean summit late last year. It is expected that these efforts may stagnate due to a harder line from Lee. He has announced that he will require North Korea to meet its commitment and dismantle its nuclear plants.

Even though he is categorized as conservative, it is feasible to expect a more pragmatic stance on foreign policy from the President-elect, given Korea’s national desire to make slow, steady progress towards unification. Steady, whereas the Koreans are fully aware of the German experience. 

Whereas unification is an aspiration shared by the entire Korean culture, a new head of state will probably employ a strategy of economic aid aimed at opening up the north. The recent summit agreement, which involved strengthening binational industrial bases via a plan to build up the Kaesong industrial zone, also seeks to develop infrastructure through out the rest of North Korea, too. The joint plan includes constructing a new industrial hub in Heyuan and launching a railway connection between the two countries. The two countries will also work on building shipyards in the north.

Despite all these efforts, a less permissive attitude is expected vis-à-vis the North Korean nuclear threat. The North needs the support of the South and the other powers which are involved. This, however, requires that the links between said five powers improve, too. China, who plays an important role as mediator, should lead the process towards greater openness of the North Korean economy. Little is known about the current state of the economy and related economic indicators.

In light of all the above, it is obvious that the incoming administration’s priorities will be the nation’s relationship with the US, which has been permeated by anti-American sentiment throughout South Korea. During this year and as long as the current Bush administration is in office, South Korea should work towards the ratification of the FTA by the US Congress, whereas this will be more difficult under a Democratic administration.

It is expected this administration will push for South Korea to remain a close ally of the US, and, consequently demand greater respect for human rights in North Korea. It is also expected to use economic aid as a way to pressure the North. (Lee approved a $40 billion North Korean economic aid package in order to help it increase its per capita income of $1,300 to nearly $ 3,000.)

Internally, Lee plans to revitalize South Korea’s economic growth and transform it into a strong power vis-à-vis China, while avoiding involving itself in a confrontation with same because of China’s role in Korean rapprochement. As such, it is vital to increase rapprochement with Japan, which has been difficult for historical reasons. Japan will continue to be at the negotiating table because it is a close ally of the US. The Korea-Japan ties should be a priority for the new administration.